No host nation has ever won a cricket World Cup and West Indies have shown no signs of bucking the trend. A fourth successive Super Eights defeat today, against South Africa at Queen's Park, would end their chances of qualifying for the semi-finals and begin yet another inquest into the state of cricket in the Caribbean.
South Africa's coach, Mickey Arthur, was in no doubt yesterday how West Indies will be feeling. "They will be desperate," he said. "They'll perhaps be under even more pressure than we are, because in your home country you are expected to go all the way."
Not that, by Arthur's own admission, South Africa will be in much better shape after their shock defeat against Bangladesh in Guyana on Saturday.
Just to stroll around the centre of St George's is to recognise the extent of West Indies' challenge. American students steer their four-wheel-drives past new shopping malls, talking of baseball or basketball. Grenada, in a certain light, might almost be Florida. For cricket to continue to flourish here, West Indies need to rediscover their mastery of old.
But it is South Africa who have put their psychologist on overtime since their Bangladesh defeat. Dr Francois Hugo has had two team sessions, and Arthur happily admits to monopolising him for jogging and swimming trips to Grand Anse beach. Presumably, judging by Arthur's continual smile yesterday - a man who might have scuba-dived off the bay to find a sunken galleon full of gold - the sessions have had some effect.
It is the state of mind of Brian Lara, West Indies' captain, which any psychologist would rather examine, however. Lara has achieved historic batting feats, yet has never won universal affection, some conveniently blaming the myriad problems of Caribbean cricket on the captain's ego. For Lara to lead West Indies to World Cup victory would scatter his critics forever; should they lose again today, recriminations will begin.
West Indies have had a nine-day break, in which time they have done a bit of practice and a lot of "liming". Lara said the rest had refreshed his squad. "If we win our last three games, we have a great chance of getting to the semi-finals," he said. "What is important is that every player has self-motivation. Then the coach and captain can do their job. We were flat in Guyana, there is no point hiding that."
He was prickled by a questioner who wondered if today "they will look like they have never played before?" They are not yet that bad. "I think that's a bit insulting," said Lara. He also thought the Bangladesh result had left South Africa vulnerable.
"We saw some of their weaknesses in that match, and it gives us something to dig into and make sure they make the same mistakes again," he said. "It could, of course, be a catalyst for them to kick into another gear. But we do expect their confidence to be affected."
Queen's Park was praised by Lara as the Caribbean's finest World Cup stadium, rebuilt after Hurricane Ivan three years ago. It should be close to its 17,000 capacity for West Indies' only visit to Grenada - especially if the ICC provides cardboard cut-out people to replace absent guests of sulking Indian sponsors. And musical instruments can now be brought in without written permission.
South Africa, 5-0 winners in an ODI series in the Caribbean in 2005, start favourites, heartened by moisture in the square, which should justify their reliance on an all-seam attack and prevent a tortuous experience for their batsmen on the sort of lifeless surface on which they lost to Bangladesh.
"This is the first game in Grenada and it is natural for the groundstaff to want to keep the square going as long as possible," Arthur said, "and for it to become dryer and slower as the matches progress. You are allowed one bad performance - and we have had ours." Lara could tell Arthur that bad performances can come in clusters.